Which normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) models are available to predict the risk of radiation-induced side effects after radiotherapy in patients with head and neck cancer, what is their quality, and what is their predictive performance?
° Many NTCP models have been developed to predict unwanted effects following radiotherapy in head and neck cancer patients but most of them have not been sufficiently externally validated, that is, tested with patients who were not involved in the original model developmental study, to know how well they really predict the unwanted effects.
° For models tested in two or more studies in addition to their original model development studies, the quality of testing and reporting of their results was generally poor, so it is difficult to know how useful they might be.
° More and better designed studies are required to investigate this issue in the area of head and neck cancer.
How can we decide on the likelihood of having unwanted effects as a result of treatment?The likelihood of having unwanted effects as a result of radiotherapy can be calculated by using so-called NTCP models. NTCP models calculate the risk of radiation-induced side effects based on information from the patient, their disease, and their treatment.
What did we want to find out?Radiotherapy is the mainstay of treatment of patients with head and neck cancer. However, radiotherapy exposes healthy, sometimes crucial, parts of the head and neck region to radiation. This may result in damage to these normal organs, e.g. disturbed saliva production, which may have important consequences for the quality of life of head and neck cancer patients treated with radiotherapy. To reach an optimal balance between tumour control and preventing radiation-induced side effects, normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) models can be helpful. These models predict the risk of radiation-induced side effects based on information from the patient, their disease, and their treatment. There have been a substantial number of NTCP models for patients with head and neck cancer. We wanted to find out what the quality of study design, conduct, and analysis (i.e. risk of bias) is, and how well these models can predict the risk of radiation-induced side effects.
What did we do?We searched for studies that developed and/or validated NTCP models in patients with head and neck cancer.
What did we find?In most of the 617 models developed from 162,527 patients in 152 identified articles, the quality of the models was not sufficient; and it has not been investigated how well they perform in new patients for 78% of these models. For the remaining 22% of the models, 193 external validations were found in 48,852 patients from 39 articles. There were only ten models with two or more external validations. The models were able to distinguish patients with and without the outcome well, but it was often unclear whether their predictions were in line with what was observed, because the latter was not always assessed and/or reported. Overall, the quality of most of these studies was low.
How up to date is the review?The evidence is current to 8th January 2024.